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In article ,
isme (NimBill) wrote:

China being so close to Taiwan could launch Diesl subs carrying ground troops
all the way across the straights in numbers large enough to take over Taiwan
with few being detected.

According to this:

http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/default.asp

China currently has about 50 diesel submarines. Now assuming that they
could fit 1000 ground troops in each of those submarines, they might be able
to land 50,000 troops on Taiwan. Does that sound reasonable?

Okay, maybe too high. Let's assume that each of those subs could carry 30
troops. Then China could land 600 troops on Taiwan. How long would 600
ground troops last?

Actually, if you are at all interested in the subject of Chinese submarine
capabilities and the ability of the US Navy to break a Chinese blockade of
Taiwan, you can check out a series of recent interesting articles on this
subject appearing in the journal International Security:

Lyle Goldstein and William Murray, "Undersea Dragons: China's Maturing
Submarine Force," International Security, Vol. 28, No. 4, Spring 2004, pp.
161-196.

Michael A. Glosny, "Strangulation from the Sea: A PRC Submarine Blockade of
Taiwan," (same issue of IS), pp. 125-160.

Also see the correspondence by Michael O'Hanlon, and Goldstein and Murray in
the current issue, pp. 202-206.

The authors differ on a number of things, but they all generally agree that
a Chinese submarine blockade of Taiwan would ultimately fail. The big
question is how many ships the US Navy might lose trying to break the
blockade.



D