"C J Campbell" wrote
Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders than
they can fill.
Well, your first problem is that you clearly have no idea what a
backlog is. Have you ever actually tried to run a business that
manufactures anything at all, never mind limited-market high-ticket
items? Do you know ANYTHING about manufacturing at all, or are you a
bean counter? Since the answer seems to be the latter, let me explain
the facts of life to you.
Everything has a lead time. Simple, common, and cheap parts have lead
times measured in days, and maybe even hours (sometimes you can send
someone out to pick it up). Complex, expensive, and limited
application parts can have lead times of literally months. Changes
are often not viable, because such parts are rarely standard. Changes
can have suble effects on operation, and not-so-subtle effects on
approvals. When most units you sell are expensive, complex, and
customized it is literally impossible to build anything as soon as it
comes in. Production must be scheduled, and parts must be ordered.
You simply can't survive without a backlog.
Depending on part lead times and assembly build times, the necessary
minimum backlog varies. In my business, the typical unit costs only
thousands or tens of thousands, we build several thousand units a
year, and we can't possibly survive with a backlog of less than about
3 months. Six months is more realistic. For a business that builds
hundreds of units costing several hundred thousand to several million,
a year or two of backlog sounds like a bare minimum.
So they cut production by 50%, tell their customers that no
planes will be available until 2006, then whine that their sales are down.
New airplanes are not purchased from stock. These are not passenger
cars, made largely standard and produced in lots of a million.
Whoever is running this company should be hanged. No, actually, drawn and
quartered -- and their living entrails burned before their very eyes.
Seriously, Cessna has a management problem. In fact, they have possibly the
worst management in their entire history -- and that is going some. I
believe that even I could turn that company around.
Yeah, I've met several accountants that thought they could run
manufacturing companies. When things went well, they were fired
before they could run the companies into the ground.
Michael
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