EDR wrote
What type approach was in use?
800 and 2 miles is pretty good for an ILS.
If he missed twice, what were the actual conditions at the DH?

Well, the problem is you don't know.

Yesterday I took a short businees trip in my plane. Conditions were
forecast/reported as marginal VFR, so I filed. I got to the airport,
and while it was slightly hazy, there was not a cloud in the sky and
stuff 5+ miles away was clearly visible. Rather than messing with a
void time, I took off VFR.

My destination was GTU, only 115 nm away. (For those playing along on
the home game, the approach there is available at:
http://www.naco.faa.gov/d-tpp/0404/05724N18.PDF). So I'm cruising
along at 2000 ft to stay out of the winds, enjoying the day, and I
decide to give Flgh****ch a call to see if maybe the conditions over
there have not improved. Well, they're still MVFR - 1000 SCT, 1600
NKN, 2200 OVC, vis 10+. OK, it's MVFR, and I can see the cloud deck
in the distance so I climb and activate, but I'm expecting a total no
brainer approach, or maybe even a visual.

So I'm over the top, and I get switched to Austin. Austing asks if I
have the weather, and I do - the latest is 900 SCT, 2300 BKN, vis 10+,
which really means I can get in on the visual - but something doesn't
smell right so I ask for the NDB. The controller clearly isn't happy,
but I really don't like the fact that every time I check, the weather
is something a little different.

So I get PD to 3000, slide into the soup at about 4500, and at 3000 I
can see down to the ground most of the time. I figure as soon as I
drop down to 2600 after crossing the NDB, I'll be out of it and just
ask for the visual. Well, I cross the NDB and drop to 2600, but now
I'm in solid soup. So I figure it's just a bad patch, and as soon as
I do the procedure turn and drop down, I'll be out. I'm still not
really in hard IFR mode - not really in the game. My mindset is still
in the "penetrate a cloud layer" rather than "shoot approach to
minimums" mode.

Well, I intercept inbound, drop to MDA - and I'm in and out of soup,
and the only stuff I can see is straight down or nearly so. Visual
aircraft control is impossible - I'm on instruments and diverting
attention to look out. Now I realize I haven't briefed the miss
because it never occurred to me I might have to miss from this
approach - until now. I'm 3 miles from the airport and I can't see
anything I recognize. So I quickly glance at the missed, and
fortunately it starts with a straight climb to 2600 so I figure I'll
have time to sort it out. NOW I'm in the game. I also realize it has
been over eight months since my last recurrent training - I'm getting
rusty. I should have snapped to this a lot quicker. My scan tightens
up, and I concentrate on keeping the altitude dead on. I don't dare
go below mins, and even 30 ft above makes a noticeable difference in
the vis.

Finally, about a mile from the airport, I spot the North hangars
through the haze and mist. That tells me where the runways is, and I
spot the REILs so now I'm golden. I make a descending right turn
(still partially on instruments) and then a descending left turn (now
visual), and fortunately I have a stiff headwind on final so I don't
have to do anything really ugly to make the runway.

On the ground, the visibility is 10+ miles. A CFI in a Cessna asks me
where the bases are. I tell him right at mins, and I wasn't sure
until the last minute whether I would get in or not, so he takes off
for some VFR pattern work with a student. Automated weather claims
900 SCT, 2000 OVC, vis 10+. I look to the South of the airport. The
clouds there are clearly higher and less solid, so I guess the weather
station isn't broken. That's just the way it goes.

What did that pilot see on the approach? How long had it been since
his last recurrent training? All we can do is speculate. I once made
an ILS approach that was advertised at 900 and 3 - and it was right at
minimums, no ****, couldn't even see the approach lights until I was
below 250 ft. An airliner came in behind me and reported the approach
at mins. This wasn't some little podunk place, either - this was SHV,
a major Class C regional like RDU. My guess is that the Mooney pilot
encountered some conditions that were probably landable but more
demanding than what he was expecting, and he never got his head back
in the game.

Michael