David Megginson wrote:
The NTSB now has its own preliminary report on the accident:

http://www.ntsb.gov/NTSB/brief.asp?ev_id=20040506X00564

Here's the key paragraph:

A preliminary review of radar data shows the pilot was conducting an ILS
approach, and was attempting to land on runway 5R. The pilot reported
that
he was not familiar with the area and needed some assistance. RDU tower
controller provided the pilot with radar vectors to runway 5R. After the
two attempts to land, the Raleigh Durham tower offered to divert the
pilot
to Greensboro Piedmont Triad International Airport. The pilot refused and
stated he needed to land at RDU. On the third attempt the tower
controller
lost radio and radar contact with the airplane.

The report does not yet state why the pilot aborted the landings: it may
have been because of lower-than-reported visibility at the runway (such
as a small fog bank), or simply difficulty flying the approaches (such
as drifting too far off the LOC or GS and deciding to go around each
time). There is no mention of mechanical problems or fuel exhaustion,
but that might still be under investigation.

It also says the visibility at the time of the accident was "0.05 sm" which has
to be a typo.

I guess we'll know more when they release the approach control tapes.

I walked over and took a closer look at the impact site this weekend and it gave
me a new perspective. There is an impact gouge about 10 feet long, a foot deep,
and 2 feet wide. Since the tree by the waters edge is broken off about 10 feet
or so off the ground, I had thought the flight path was:
break off some trees
break off some more trees
break off tree by waters edge
cartwheel into the pond

After looking at the scene more closely, I realize it must have been:
break off some trees
break off some more trees
hit the ground, dig a big trench and bounce
break off tree by waters edge
cartwheel into the pond.

Even after hitting the ground and digging a big trench, it still had enough
momentum to tip the tree by the pond by 30 degrees or so and break off the roots.

NTSB (or someone) had done a pretty good job of cleaning up the site. There were
bits of insulation stuck in the trees, miscellaneous bits of material that
looked like they might have come from an airplane interior floating in the pond
near the outflows from the pond. My wife found a 6 inch piece of a front panel
at the trench including the - switch with the Bendix/King logo and "KY196" on
it. It all just confirmed my initial impression that there were few big pieces
left after the initial impact.

Dave
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