"Michael" wrote:
Important to remember - VFR into IMC fatality is a private pilot kind
of accident. Only about 18% of private pilots are instrument rated,
so they should account for only 18% of those fatalities - less if the
rating offers an advantage. What are the real numbers?

Perhaps, but I think you assume that the other possible influences are
uniformly distributed, which I doubt is true. For example, do the 18% of
IFR rated private pilots have the same level of recent flying experience(*)
as the 72% of non-IFR rated pilots?

Russell Kent

(*) I'm assuming that "recent flying experience" would be a factor in the
survivability of, or probability of encountering, a VFR-into-IMC situation.
I have no evidence to back this claim; it's just a gut feeling.