snipped

The FARs are 'written in blood;' for every paragraph in there, somebody
died to prove to us we needed that rule. I wish that no one will ever
again have to give their life to teach us something; but they do it
anyway.

I just wish that if someone insists on making the ultimate sacrifice to
teach us something, would they please try at least to pick something we
don't already know?

Sincerely,

Gene Hudson
CFI-IA, MEI, ASC


Thanks for the considered & helpful words in this thread by you, Dudley and
others.

I note that most of the responders are suggesting flight into
IMC/disorientation as the probable cause of the loss of control. Based on
the metars showing deteriorating trends of vis & dp spread I would tend to
agree this is a probable scenario but
I would like to relate an experience which may or may not have any relevance
to this crash (I cannot bring myself to call it an accident)

I drove from Banff to Springbank(Calgary) on a winter morning under a
blindingly clear Alberta sky and was surprised to see the airport lying in a
thin veil of ground fog. Approaching from the west and looking down to the
airport I could see that the fog was very thin and no more than 100 ft
thick. Driving up to the school it was obvious that it was below VFR but
looked like it would clear later after the sun got a little higher and
warmed things up. The ATIS noted expected equal temp/dp. Horizontal vis
was minimal and very grey but looking up the sky was clear blue.

It was one of those sucker traps where it was easy to think that with my
instrument training (but not rating) I would be able to easily take off and
climb s&l through the thin fog to the clear sky above and that the fog would
have long burned off by the time of return for landing. My training and
instinct for self preservation stopped me from giving this any serious
consideration but I did perform a short experiment.

I started an aircraft engine and allowed it to idle @ 8-900 rpm for the same
time as it would have taken to reach the run-up bay, I then performed a
standard run-up @ 1800 rpm then shutdown. I felt that this duplicated the
conditions that would exist if attempting to fly.

After shutdown I examined the prop and found that the inner half of the prop
was covered with very thick ice and with ridges as much as 3/8 in. thick,
the outer prop showed thinner icing. I consider it probable that any
attempt to take off would have resulted in a failure to climb out of ground
effect and a likely a blind landing in the soup off the end of the runway.
Since the ice would have melted by the time any investigators arrived it
would probably be attributed to the engine failing to develop sufficient
power, perhaps due to carb icing which would also likely have occurred but
also melted.

We took a Polaroid of the prop which severed as a cautionary notice on the
bulletin board for that season.

After some ground study and hangar flying the fog burned off and I had a
cavok day, proving again the old adage about bad weather, "IT WILL PASS"
The associated thought is that if you crash due to bad weather, your
funeral will be held on a sunny day.

Blue skies and best wishes to all
diver driver
CPL & student of flight