"Ron Natalie" writes:

"David Dyer-Bennet" wrote in message ...

I've thought about whether winning is actually any less likely than
their just sending you the check by mistake. But checking news
sources, it seems that people *do* actually win now and then,
whereas there are no documented cases of the check just being sent
to the wrong person.

The problem is not that people don't win, the problem is the EV is
horrible. That is, if you played the lottery forever, what would be
the overall return (essentially odds_of_winning*amount_won /
amount_to_play). State lotteries are horrendously bad. EV's around
.5. Even the real sucker casino games are up in the .9's.

On the other hand, the *utility* to me of a dollar every month or so
is essentially nil; it simply dissappears out of my budget without any
consequences. Whereas the *utility* of winning a few million dollars
is very high -- it would completely change my life, let me spend my
time on those things I have to fit in around work most of the time,
travel more, and so forth.

And "utility" is more real than "money" to me.
--
David Dyer-Bennet, , www.dd-b.net/dd-b/
RKBA: noguns-nomoney.com www.dd-b.net/carry/
Photos: dd-b.lighthunters.net Snapshots: www.dd-b.net/dd-b/SnapshotAlbum/
Dragaera/Steven Brust: dragaera.info/