"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 21 May 2004 01:48:23 GMT, Philip Sondericker
wrote:

I make no claims as to the accuracy of anything contained in the above
article. But it's an interesting counterpoint to the article claiming
that
oil reserves are actually increasing. Is this just more of the usual
alarmism?

The Wall Street Journal had an article the other day dealing with
Hubbert's Peak.

Hubbert predicted that oil production in any field or country would
peak (and then decline) at a fairly predictable time, and history has
borne him out.

"Marion King Hubbert, a geophysicist and a geologist for the USGS, is known
for predicting, in 1956, that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and
decline thereafter. This peak has come to be known as Hubbert's peak and is
used to allegedly demonstrate that the current demand for oil will lead to a
crisis and that that crisis is nearly upon us."

In the U.S. as I recall it was 1972 (I was surprised it
was so late). In the North Sea it was 2000. Saudi according to the
article is fairly close to peaking, and nothing has been discovered in
the past half-century that could replace Saudi oil.

The article made no mention of fields regenerating, though obviously
it is possible in a given case. (Shucks, there could have been an
undiscovered field/lode/pool near the Mexican one mentioned, which
began to "leak" into the original site.)


Are you referring to David Goodstein's book "Out of Gas"?