"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
news:xJ4wc.6579$Sw.1544@attbi_s51...
"Marco Rispoli" wrote in message
t...
Here's a pilot profile

Between 50 and 350 hours
...
This is the killing zone and that profile fits me to a T.

The problem I have with the Killing Zone is that the author never
establishes that the fatality rate per hour of flight time is any greater
for pilots in the 50-350 hour range than for pilots with any other level
of
experience. What he establishes instead is that the annual fatality rate
per
quantile of flight experience is elevated in that range of experience. But
it's conceivable, for instance, that disproportionately many hours each
year
are flown by pilots in that range. Then, you'd expect disproportionately
many fatalities in that range even if each hour flown by a pilot in that
range is as safe (or even safer) than an hour flown by other pilots.
Because
he hasn't normalized by the annual hours flown, the author hasn't
established that pilots in the designated "zone" have any elevated risk at
all.

--Gary

I'm a newly minted PP-ASEL and I'm as scared (though not as eloquent) as
Marco. Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on such
an elementary methodological error?