Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on such
an elementary methodological error?


There are many things in (popular) statisics that are based on elementary
methodological error. Sometimes this is deliberate (9 out of 10 doctors
reccomend...), sometimes not (most auto accidents occur within 25 miles of
home). As long as you are aware that 82.3% of statistics are bogus, your
understanding of reality will be unimpaired.

I have not read the Killing Zone, though I have heard of its claims. I would
say that the thing to take home is that there will come a time in ones flying
career when one thinks they "have it down" and start getting just a little bit
careless. You take shortcuts, you skip things, you extend the envelope too
far. That's when you get bit.

That said, underconfidence will also bite you. You are PILOT IN COMMAND, and
you need to fly with confidence. No matter the conditions, evaluate them, make
your decision, and execute it, remaining in command of the flight, because the
laws of physics and human nature are ready to pounce. Just don't let this
authority become bravado.

Jose

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