"Dan Luke" wrote
market is destroying the unionized carriers. The $200K left-seater is a
fading anachronism.

Actually, Southwest is unionized and they're doing great. Of course
they are not an ALPA shop, and their pilots don't make what the rest
of the industry is making. Still, they do fairly well - and Southwest
is probably a pretty good indication of where the salaries will
stabilize. Maybe.

For now, Southwest still has to compete with other carriers in hiring.
I have a feeling most of those other carriers are not going to be
around much longer. Having a bunch of senior jet pilots dumped on the
market is going to do amazing things.

Realistically, at the airline captain level, you're talking about a
job with supervisory duties and technical proficiency requirements
that requires a college degree in a reasonably technical subject,
expensive training, paying a lot of dues, and at least 10 years of
post-college experience. What's more, lots of those who head in that
direction don't make it. That calls for a salary in the low six/high
five figures to make it worthwhile, and that's where salaries are
going to stabilize.

It will be interesting to
see where pay bottoms out, and what the general quality of Part 121 pilots
will be when it does.

My bet is that is stabilizes right around $100K in today's dollars for
major airline captains, and the quality of the pilots (as measured in
accident rate) will not change.

Michael