"Bob Fry" wrote in message
...
"Mike Rapoport" writes:

"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
I think what he really meant was that there's no reason (when all is
said
and done) a private pilot can't end up with the same accident record as
an
airline captain.

Marco Leon

That isn't even remotely true.

It's at least remotely true. Look, airline flying is safer because of
better training and better equipment. 2 points for them. But, they
must fly on schedule and therefore in bad weather. The average PP-ASEL
doesn't have the great equipment and training, but *if they choose*,
they can decide when they fly and under what conditions.

So the VFR rated PP can take a cross country trip and be quite safe,
*if they allow for slack time*. If the PP gets into a situation where
they must meet a schedule they are inviting disaster, sooner, or later.

Your analysis is flawed and doesn't represent reality. First, the weather
and schedule risks are already included in the airline data of .012 fatal
accidents per 100K hours. The *total* GA fatal rate (including bizjets over
12,500lb) is 1.36/100k hrs. This is a rate 113 times higher than the
airline rate. The source for both of these is the NTSB.

Second, GA over 12,500lb has an accident rate about 2-3x the airline rate
and flys a significant percentage of the total GA hours. This makes the
"light GA" accident rate higher than the NTSB numbers.

Third, "Personal flying" (light GA excluding business and training)
constitutes 47% of "light GA" flight hours and 72% of fatal accidents so the
"personal flying" accident rate is 50% higher than the overall "light GA"
rate. So, the light GA fatal accident rate is *over* 169 times the airline
rate. I don't have the over 12,500lb hours and accident rates so I can't
demonstrate how much over the 169 times "light GA" but I suspect that it is
another 50% higher (254 times)

Even if you eliminate weather, hostile terrain and "stupid pilot tricks" you
don't eliminate over 99% of light GA fatal accidents.

The bottom line is that personal flying is not even remotely close to
airline flying *under any conditions* in terms of safety.

Mike
MU-2