"C Kingsbury" wrote in message link.net...


But the OP's question was basically, "is my husbnad going to kill himself in
an airplane one of these days."

So rather than falling down the rabbit hole, you look at the gross average,
which by its nature weights for all the possibilities. Imperfectly, to be
sure, as all statistical measures are. But it is by far more valid for
forecasting purposes than picking-and-choosing at every level.

-cwk.

Exactly. Which is precisely why I chose to use *all* auto statistics
versus *all* GA Fixed-wing data. The Nall Report doesn't cover the
G-IVs and Citations of the world..it covers planes below 12,500
lbs...which is the kind of plane her husband will be flying.

And without trying to bend the data one way ot the other, taking *all*
of the data for light fixed-wing aircraft, we come to the conclusion
that her husband is more likely to arrive at his destination *without
a scratch* if he flys GA, but more likely to arrive *alive* of he
travels in an auto.

And either way, he is *very* likely to be fine. To have even a 10%
probability of dying in an aircraft accident, one would have to fky 10
hours every week, of every month, of every year for over 15
years...we're not talking about the danger of explosive ordnance
disposal versus sitting in a rocking chair knitting. Both are 'safe',
and their relative safety (as borne out by the statistical data)
depends on whoch question you ask.

Cheers,

Cap