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  #159  
Old December 4th 04, 11:40 AM
Neil Gould
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Hi Captain Wubba,

I've read your contributions to this thread, and appreciate your usage of
logic and statistical analysis. I'm pleased that some people can integrate
the two into a sensible understanding of risk!

Recently, Captain Wubba posted:
(mostly snipped for brevity)
"C Kingsbury" wrote in message

But the OP's question was basically, "is my husbnad going to kill
himself in an airplane one of these days."

[...]

And without trying to bend the data one way ot the other, taking *all*
of the data for light fixed-wing aircraft, we come to the conclusion
that her husband is more likely to arrive at his destination *without
a scratch* if he flys GA, but more likely to arrive *alive* of he
travels in an auto.

The above appears to be a mutually exclusive statement. I'd state this a
little differently, taking into account your earlier analysis: "...her
husband is more likely to arrive at his destination *without a scratch* if
he flys GA, but [*if involved in an accident* he'd be] more likely to
arrive *alive* of (SIC) he travels in an auto.

And either way, he is *very* likely to be fine.

This is the salient point. The chances of being involved in an accident in
either mode of transportation is quite low.

Regards,

Neil