"Jimbob" wrote in message
...
As another poster noted. a slight change in the LSA ruling could
significantly improve the value of Cessna 15X planes, making flying that much
more expensive for us weekend renters.


Maybe for a short speculative period, but not in the long term.

1) If the rule allowed more pilots to use it, but the number of pilots
was unchanged and no new planes enter the market, demand remains
constant. Therefore, the value would not change.

There is one factor that you are not taking into account. If no new LSA
planes hit the market (unlikely), if the hoard of new LSA pilots fails to
materialize (very possible), there is still one big sport pilot-driven change in
the aircraft market that will certainly happen, older pilots who are concerned
about passing their next medical will gravitate towards sport-eligible airplanes
and those airframes will be in greater demand. This might be a really good time
to own a cherry Ercoupe or Cub.


2) If the number of pilots increased without an increase in supply of
new cheap aircraft, then demand increases and supply remains fixed.
Their value would go up. i.e. increased interest in sportpilot.

3) However, if the rule changed, # of pilots remained fixed and there
were new competative products on the market that were more desireable
and cost effective, then their value would drop. i.e. LSA are released
on the market and they are cheaper to maintain.

1 thru 3 above are a good analysis of the possibilities.

Vaughn


The questions are; How interested are people in sportpilot and will
the new planes really hit the market? I see #3 personally.