"Ron Garret" wrote in message
...
Yes it is, you just didn't read what I wrote very carefully. Pay
particular attention to the phrase "some time in your career."

Only if you're speaking of a hypothetical career prior to its start.

That depends on what you mean by "the odds". The odds on any one play
are the same, but the cumulative odds of experiencing a win or an engine
failure *at some point in your life* goes up with every play/flight.

Define "cumulative odds". The word "cumulative" implies that you're talking
about the odds as the flight hours accrue. In that respect, your claim is
false.

Specifically, if the odds of winning on a single try are P then the odds
of winning some time in your career are 1-(1-P)^N where N is the number
of times you play.

That statement is true only when you are calculating the odds prior to ALL
trials (flights), and have determined the number of trials (flights) in
advance. It's not a useful calculation for the purpose of this discussion.
No one knows before they've started flying how many flights they will make
in a lifetime.

Pete