In article , says...

Analyse the industry and you will see at once the folly of the 380.
1. Many airlines are moving towards smaller jets.
2. Airlines that are operating on the older HUB model have been losing money
for many years, while smaller regeonals using the direct flight model are
making money. The direct flight model requires smaller planes.
3. Pilot pay is going down, so it is no longer a big money savings reducing
the number of pilots by flying larger planes.
4. Gas costs are going up, and will continue to rise for the next several
years. Fuel efficiency is key.

With these factors in mind, it is at the least very risky to be putting all
of your eggs in one basket with the A380. If it does not sell like hot
cakes, Airbus is going to take a bath, and the Euro taxpayers are going to
be footing the bill.



If you consider the above to be a full analysis of the industry - you could be
a top exec at Boeing!! (That's a joke - I don't mean to criticize your
comment). Seriously, what is missing from your thumbnail analysis is the
persepctive of the major Asian carriers - companies like Cathay Pacific and
Singapore Airlines will not convert massively to 7E7's just because Boeing
says they should. Such planes do not fit their mission profile, or their
corporate image. They will buy (and already have bought) A380's. I do not
doubt Boeing is right to move away from the 747 program, and time may prove
them right on their long term strategy - but to make public announcements
now that they are stopping the 747 seems foolhardy to me. By simply saying the
747-400 will continue production, they would be offering a "conservative"
option to those carriers who already rely heavily on this aircraft. And
wherever you find people making hundred-million dollar purchases, you're
going to find some conservative people. Would you sneeze at picking up an
extra $10 billion in cash, while waiting for your market projections to
materialize? Apparently Boeing does!

Of course the A-380 is a huge gamble, and I agree it is the Europeans' savings
they are gambling with. It is a very serious effort, and they will put every
resource possible into assuring it will obtain its market objectives, however
with such diametrically opposed strategies, one is tempted to believe that
both Boeing AND Airbus cannot be right. Since I do not have a crystal ball to
see who is going to be vindicated, I look to other indicators of management
success, and I'm afraid I do not discern a bright, shining beacon at Boeing.

G Faris