On 1-Jul-2005, "M" wrote:

Anyone worries about what the rising avgas price to the light plane
ownership in the U.S? I have absolutely no doubt that the average
avgas price will surpass $5/gallon in about 5 years. We'll probably
see a significant drop of GA flying, along with a big drop of the value
of used airplanes. It's really depressing just to think about it.


Despite the anti-market shenanigans of OPEC, the price of oil and its
derivatives is classically governed by supply and demand. And even with
China's exploding economy and our faltering one, US consumption --
particularly gasoline for private automobiles -- still dominates demand. At
some point on the price scale people are going to stop buying gas-hog SUVs
and start driving much more fuel-efficient cars. That will have a huge
impact on demand and will probably slow crude oil price increases

SUV sales are already slumping, the dominant reason for financial
difficulties at Ford and GM. If auto gas prices go much higher, sales of
gas-guzzlers will probably tank completely.

In the meantime, the relative efficiency of my Arrow, compared to a
comparably performing C-182 -- is looking better all the time.

--
-Elliott Drucker