I look at it from the point of view that if there is a meaningful chance
that I will have to divert to somewhere with VFR weather then I wouldn't
launch into IMC in the first place. Basically he is saying that you won't
be able to fly IMC at some point in the flight but you are going to depend
on flying IMC (to get to the VFR).

Not necessarily. What he IS saying is that he may retain the
capability to fly IMC enroute, but not the capability to shoot an
approach. Now let's consider how this may happen.

IMO the biggest issue is an electrical failure that would leave you
able to fly enroute IMC (by dead reckoning if nothing else) since the
gyros are vacuum, but unable to shoot an approach. This was a real
issue before the handheld GPS, since few light aircraft have truly
redundant electrical systems. I have a handheld GPS with its own
batteries on a yoke mount. In a pinch, I can use it to shoot an
overlay VOR or NDB approach (I practice doing this) and I consider it a
no-go item on flights where I lack the range to reach VFR, despite the
fact that my electrical system is more redundant than most - I still
have only one electrical bus.

That doesn't mean that I don't want a
"real" alternate where I can count on getting in but if that alternate needs
to be VFR then either the pilot or the airplane is not up to flying IMC in
the first place.

By that definition, no single or light twin was up to flying IMC before
handheld nav became available. In my experience, electrical failures
are far more common than engine failures.

Having said that, the REAL reason for the rule is the sad reality that
all too many pilots of complex singles are not able to hand-fly a
partial panel approach, and all too many pilots of light twins are not
able to fly a single engine approach. These pilots need to have VFR in
range, so that they can fly there in the event of vacuum/engine
failure. You could argue that these pilots are not up to flying IMC in
the first place, and I would even agree with you, but you can't look at
the accident history and claim there are not many of them.

Michael