Heh...Murphy strikes again....

My dad called last night and said that he came home to a garage with
water (all over the floor) coming from the water heater. This was at
8:00 last night. He will work on it tonight, but it's not promising.
I've offered any help with it I can do. The other factor is that my
uncle needs a go-no go decision about 5:30 pm this evening because he
will be driving from the Woodburn (OR) area to KAWO beginning this
evening and travelling part-way tonight, the rest of the way tomorrow if
we don't fly. That does not preclude the wx geting better and us flying
anyway, but it does not help my uncle if we make a decision later.

I called MMV AFSS today and got an outlook for tomorrow...It may be VFR
enough to fly up there in the morning. Coming back later in the day
seems to be looking more promising as the wx is supposed to improve N-S.

Part of me is in the (potentially dangerous) mode that "I want to go and
be there and I want to fly there" becuase I am not going to go if I
don't fly. I also recognize that I need to pay close attention to the
weather going AND coming back very carefully. If it doesn't work out
this year, there will be next year. I just hope my dad gets the water
heater issue resolved and the weather is at least to his minimums for
our trip.

chris




Peter Duniho wrote:
"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
news.net...

Part of it is that my dad has to drive for just over an hour to meet me at
the plane. I can't fly (that plane) without him (yet). Also, we have one
other person flying with us that morning who has to drive about 20-30 mins
to get to the plane. [...]


"Time to spare, go by air".

I think what I said still holds. A "no-go" decision could still occur as
late as just before takeoff.

Yes, there's wasted time doing things like driving if you don't go, but IMHO
that's just the risk you take with recreational flying. Everyone knows the
"better to be down here wishing you were up there" saying, but I think it's
possible to take that too far. You ought to at least give yourself the best
chance to go, rather than relying on an unreliable forecast to tell you
whether you'll go or not.

Some other silly ideas I have:

* There are four possible outcomes based on a Friday decision: good
forecast, which is correct; bad forecast, which is correct; good forecast,
which is incorrect; bad forecast, which is incorrect. Out of those four
possibilities, if you are determined to make your decision on Friday, then
three of those four possibilities result in you not flying Saturday. Them's
pretty lousy odds, IMHO, especially when one of the possibilities just
causes the wasted driving time that seems to be desired to avoid.

* Just because you can't make it all the way to Arlington, that doesn't
mean the trip to the airport is wasted. The weather might actually be fine
there, and there's no shame in changing your plan, but still going flying.

All that said, if I should butt out, just say so and I will. You do say
"part of it", which implies there may be other issues at work I don't know
of, shouldn't know of, or whatever. But since you seem to agree with me on
the fundamental issue, I figure I ought to help you with as much
rationalization regarding why to delay the go/no-go decision until Saturday
regardless.

Pete