"Gig 601XL Builder" wrote:
[snip]
If you use these numbers you would get a pretty good
feel for the number of people who start and then don't
get their license. If only 10% of the drop-outs were
retained that would be more than 3600 more private
pilots.

Maybe I'm missing the point ... ???

There will *always* be a drop-out rate. The only way to say that
aviation has a high(er) drop-out rate is to compare it to other
activities with at least *some* expense, risk-factor, high mental demand
and time commitment similarities, where you train to fill requirements
and test for a license. Then compare those current numbers to two, five
or ten years ago to see if those other activities currently are
experiencing a higher drop-out rate, too. How high is the drop-out rate
for student sky-divers? What percentage of med school students actually
become doctors? The state of the economy could play a part in drop-out
trends, too.

Everyone here understands that learning to fly is a huge endeavor that
takes money, commitment, time, energy, and the support of whoever you
live with. It also requires access to a CFI that you work well with that
is available when you are, and reliable, well-maintained equipment. The
absence of any *ONE* of those elements is enough to make it impossible
to complete the training ... or even to continue after the rating is
achieved (except the presence of the CFI). That said, not everyone who
*has* all those elements sees it through to completion, either. Without
meaning to sound arrogant, I'm not sure there is, or should be, a way to
fix that.