"George Patterson" wrote in message
news:VLaOe.1126$N22.942@trndny07...
Ash Wyllie wrote:

In a generation the Pacific rim will be a very dangerous place.

The Atlantic carried a story a month or two back on this. One of our
military
experts was quoted as saying "Getting into a war with China is easy. I can
think
of several trigger points; Taiwan, for instance. The question is, how do
get
yourself *out* of a war with China?"


http://www.washtimes.com/national/20...3400-7322r.htm

Chinese military buildup reaches beyond Taiwan
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
July 20, 2005



China is rapidly building up its military forces and weapons systems to
project power beyond Taiwan, according to a Pentagon report made public
yesterday.
Chinese military leaders "have expressed the view that control of Taiwan
would enable the [People's Liberation Army's] Navy to move its maritime
defensive perimeter further seaward and improve Beijing's ability to
influence regional sea lines of communication," said the annual report,
required by Congress.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told reporters that China's economy
and defense spending are growing "and they have been purchasing substantial
numbers of modern weapons from a variety of countries, including Russia."
"They have been deploying additional capabilities," he said.
China's efforts, the report said, are shifting the balance of power
across the Taiwan Strait in Beijing's favor.
"The cross-Strait military balance appears to be shifting toward Beijing
as a result of China's sustained economic growth, growing diplomatic
leverage and improvements in the PLA's military capabilities," the report
said.
For the first time since the report was produced in 2000, the Pentagon
presented several assessments showing China may not evolve as a peaceful
international power.
China's growing nationalism, an expanding military that proliferates
arms to rogue states and a government that is still adapting to stronger
roles give it the potential to be a threatening power.
"In the future, as China's military power grows, China's leaders may be
tempted to resort to force or coercion more quickly to press diplomatic
advantage, advance security interests, or resolve disputes," the report
said.
The report stated that the U.S. intelligence community estimates it will
take China until 2010 to be ready to confront a medium-sized power.
However, the report noted that Chinese military secrecy has resulted in
"incomplete data" about its arms.
For example, U.S. intelligence agencies were taken by surprise by
China's development of the Yuan class of attack submarine that has new
underwater propulsion capabilities.




Some points the article made -- 1) China is a nuclear power. 2) Their sub
force
is increasing rapidly and could control most of the Pacific in ten years
or so
if they maintain the current build rate. 3) They have a small carrier
force and
are working hard at developing it. Carriers give you offensive
capabilities that
nothing else will provide.

In short, in ten to twenty years, China will have offensive capacity which
will
allow them to do pretty much anything they want in the Pacific and they
will be
able to easily sink any surface forces we deploy against them. What they
do with
this remains to be seen, of course.


China is NOT a benevolent power in any sense.