No, it doesn't make much sense. The cost of enviornmental regulations
are
already in their costs and refining margins are high (including the
costs of
compliance). Most refiners are looking to add capacity over the next
few
years although with expansions not "new" refineries. The idea that
nobody is
motivated to make the first move because there are few players is
silly.
Capital investment decisions are made based on the projected return.

Mike
MU-2

There are considerable environmental regulation costs in building new
refineries, though. As to the effect of a few players, I'm only
parroting what industry analysts say about the situation. Soon it may
not be the case, but if current refining capacity can meet demand,
where's the return on investment now?

The following research by the Consumer Federation in 2003 appears to
adequately explain the odd situation in this industry:
www.consumerfed.org/pdfs/gasoline1003.pdf

Fred F.