"Jim" wrote in message
...

The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.

I've been inclined to see each event as independent
of and not influenced by any preceding events.

Well, in a case like this, it's not true. While each jump
taken in isolation has the same probability, the odds
of a successful 10,000th jump certainly *are* dependent
on having 9,999 successful jumps before hand.

If any of those previous 9,999 jumps are unsuccessful,
then the probability of a successful 10,000 jump is 0%.

Jeff Shirton jshirton at cogeco
dot ca

Keep thy airspeed up, lest the earth come from below
and smite thee. - William Kershner
Challenge me (Theophilus) for a game of chess at Chessworld.net!