wrote in message
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"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in message
news:Kx1Re.6675$7f5.2476@okepread01...

The second person has a 5/6 chance of survival.

Do you honestly give the first person 5/6 chance of survival?
I would give him (without calculating precisely) somwhere
around 0.005 % chance of survival.

There is a difference.

The odds for an something to happen on any given roll,
trigger pull or jump don't change

Yes, I'm aware of that.

But we're not discussing an isolated instance.
We are discussion a *sequence* of related incidents.
Please see other replies in this thread.

Btw, you didn't answer my question. Do you honestly believe
that someone who starts from "zero state", and plays Russian
Roulette with a 6-shooter, 1000 times, has a 5/6 chance of
survival? If you do, you don't understand probability theory.



Of course not. I also don't expect to get a Royal Flush when the guy accross
the table has 4-of-a-kind and a whole lot of chips but if I play poker long
enough I might.