On Sat, 17 Sep 2005 11:43:30 GMT, "Dan"
wrote:


Thanks Gordon, it needed to be said. I have had the same feelings for some
time. I too was a little put off by the tone of the editorial in this months
KITplanes. the editor completely ignores some pretty healthy and real costs
when he trashes an older aircraft in favour of the new plastic fantastics.
Depreciation comes screaming to mind. Some of the characteristics of aging
plastic give me pause also.

Since I would not buy a $100,000 depreciating asset even if I could the new
aircraft hold little interest for me.



I agree. The thing I am hoping for is economies of scale kick in.
We've increased the number of potential buyers from Europe to USA +
Europe. I don't think relative demand per unit has increased because
of the prices. I am wondering if someone might be able to turn the
corner and start some form of automation or parts sharing. The trick
here would be some form of modularization or partial automation. It
could drop costs dramatically.

I know a lot of people will dismiss this because they think the
numbers are not there, but we aren't talking a Detroit level system
off the bat. The playing field just changed drastically For the
first time, we have a quick method of certification for a standardized
plane. # seats, stall and max speed are all fixed. Powerplant size
can only vary so much otherwise you're shooting youself in the foot.

These can all be achieved with a known airframe. Yes, some people
would want to design their plane to look distinctive or reduce fuel
consumption, but there would be a serious economic incentive to
standardize. Several companies could work with a cookie cutter
airframe, say a Thorp, and focus on ergonimics. Maybe tweak it a bit
for their own purposes.

The 800 lb gorilla in all this might be china. They have the
capability to squash all LSA manuafacturing in one fail swoop with
their cheap labor and manufacturing capabilities. If they could get
the price low enough, they could swallow the trainer market whole.
This market is ripe for the taking. You price a good LSA about
$40-$45K and you'd sell one to nearly every flight school on the
planet.

I am expecting the LSA to depreciate over the next few years, so I
wont touch them. Sportpilot will never materialize until the price
point goes under well under 50K.



Jim

http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org