"Roger" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 25 Sep 2005 05:27:54 -0400, "Morgans"
wrote:


"Roger" wrote

The scary part is the news tonight was reporting a gas leak out in the
gulf where the lines come together before the gas is brought to shore.
Wait till you see your LP and natural gas bills this winter. Most
commercial electricity is produced by burning natural gas.

I heard this, but only as a quick blurb.

What is said to have caused this leak? My guess (if someone had a gun to
my
head forcing me to speculate) would be a dragging "super anchor" from a
floating oil platform.

Sorry for the interruption/incomplete answer earlier. The
thunderstorm is long past. Actually a whole bunch have passed with a
whole bunch more coming through. I lost power 3 or 4 times
momentarily, but the computers kept right on chugging along complete
with UPS alarms sounding.

Last I heard they didn't say any thing about the cause, or even any
speculation. News was they were going to go out today and have a
look. I don't know just how deep the gulf is at the Henry Hub
location. I'd not expect the hurricane to disturbe the waters that
deep, but then again there may be surface structures in the vicinity
or something may have dragged across, or one of the pipes may have
been "pulled". A lot of stuff seems to have done a bit of moving
around out there.

Given the two opposing movements produced by a hurricane and the shallow
water in which the "Henry Hub" is likely to be located, far less than 100
fathoms, I'd guess early on that the amount of movement caused by the
initial outflow of water toward the storm, followed by the surge, are likely
to have exceeded the limits of one of more of the flexible couplings
attaching the collectors (or the shore line) to the hub. One problem is
that the waters are filled with stirred up sediment and sand and will take a
while to clear for suitable diving conditions - They are never very clear. -
and the second, pre-dive if possible, isolating the line(s) the coupling(s)
of which is/are leaking and shutting off the flow of gas. I'm sure the
structure has a valving system installed which prevents cross and back
flows.

The natural gas price issue is less clear than the superficial reaction
makes it out to be....

I own a small interest in a gas producing property, itself a few wells which
share production from a single underground "pool" of natural gas under
pressure. This production is generally sold under contract, in our case to
Phillips which owns the nearby pipeline which collects the gas. When the
price jumps as it has and will this winter, our earnings will be dependent
on the terms (and the time) that have been negotiated for the gas. Would
that there were no contract, today, for I'd get fat and happy quicker. The
result, gas burned to make electricity or piped to home or industry, which
has been purchased at several different prices. Overall, I expect natural
gas's "overall" price increase to be in the 30-35% range this Winter.

......But have I got a deal for you (or for me, really). Over on the edge of
East Texas, I own what is now a 1/25 interest in the "Mineral Rights" to 532
acres+/- in the 1911 survey (actually now 540 acress by the survey when the
"land" - surface rights - was recently sold). 15,000 feet (and $3-5,000,000
worth of drilling) beneath the surface is natural gas, by all evidence and
indication in production quantities (which means that a dry hole is
possible, but that the risk is acceptable). If a production company knocks
on the door ready to drill (and willing to pay an acceptable percentage),
the potential value of the gas, all "new" and ready to be sold at today's
spot market prices, 2 or 3 times that of old gas, is substantial. The poor
*******s buying "country places" and "ranchettes" up top have no say in the
matter and would only receive token payments and compensation for a drilling
rig in their backyards or a "Christmas Tree" next to the car port. As for
me, I'sd be planning vacations, long vacations, permanent unemployment and
relaxed retirement.



I stand corrected on the % of coal Vs Gas generated electricity.
That's what I get for using the news:-))

I saw another blurb that listed projected increases as 12% for
electricity, I think it was in the 30% range for fuel oil, and in the
high 70% range for natural gas. The analysts seemed to be breathing a
sigh of relief even with those figures.




TMO