On Wed, 24 Dec 2003 20:48:36 -0500, JJ wrote:
1. We know that terror operatives are hiding in the mountains between
Afghanistan and Pakistan

2. It is possible that Bin Laden himself is in this area

3. We are running around like crazy raising alert levels, canx flights etc.

How about this warning from our US Government:

If any terror attack occurs on US soil that results in loss of American
life or damage to American infrastructure from Bin Laden and friends, we
will launch one minuteman nuclear missile into the mountains of
Afghanistan and Pakistan and obliterate 200 square miles for each attack
or loss of life in America.

Just one small problem. As of November, 2002, the maximum explosive
yield of the nuclear weapons carried on a Minuteman missile was a total
of just over a megaton (3 W-78 warheads with a yield of 375 kilotons
each.)

It would be pretty much impossible to "obliterate 200 square miles" with the
weapons carried on one Minuteman. Let's assume you want at least 5 psi
overpressure (the minimum needed to cause heavy damage to an American-style
wood frame house.) The blast from a 375 kiloton airburst at optimum altitude
(assuming flat terrain in the target area) will give you 5 psi at a maximum
range of about 3.2 miles, covering an area of only about 32 square miles.
Multiply by three, and you're still more than 100 square miles short of your
goal.

For maximum psychological effect, though, you probably want craters and
fallout. To get a decent crater and appreciable fallout, you need to detonate
the warheads at ground level. A 375-kiloton groundburst would give you
5 psi overpressure out to only about 2 miles from ground zero, covering
only about 12.5 square miles. Multiply by three, and you still could easily
leave Osama bin Laden laughing at you from the 162.5 square miles of your
intended target area that you haven't damaged. You would get three
fairly impressive craters about 1,500 feet in diameter and close to 200
feet deep (assuming mostly rock at ground zero instead of loose soil),
but that's it.

Damage would be reduced further by the mountainous terrain and the fact
that most buildings in that part of the world are made of mud brick, stone,
or concrete, which would be far more resistant to blast overpressure than
wood frame construction.


ljd