On Sat, 08 Oct 2005 05:36:35 GMT, Dave S
wrote:



Jay Honeck wrote:
Agreed, OT, and just another win for BIG OIL. I hope the senate has a
better handle on what subsidies look like and what profits are for...


Did you READ the article? There hasn't been a new refinery built in the
U.S. since I was a senior in high school -- 29 years ago!

snip

The oil companies havent gone into bankruptcy in droves over 20 odd
years, if anything they have made money hand over fist. They have not
increased their refining capacity because it would decrease their
overall PROFIT margin. Building new refining capacity to "standard"
would drive their incremental cost of production UP, and eat into the
stockholders dividends. But make no mistake, it would still be PROFIT.

What we are celebrating is the deliberate browbeating of the elected
Republican representatives of the House by the Republican Leadership. I
What we are seeing is two things.
Environmental regs that are preventing new refineries, but new
refineries would be one of the worst mistakes we could make.

The refineries are getting rich and we are becoming more dependent on
foreign oil for one reason. The whole system operates on supply and
demand. If we as individuals didn't use so much of the stuff the
refineries wouldn't be charging so much, we wouldn't be importing so
much and the world would be a more peaceful place.

If I have my figures any where near correct, if we had a quarter of
the cars on the road getting the mileage of the Prius, we'd have no
need for importing oil and the price of oil would go down.

However, I've come to the unhappy conclusion that the average driver
is only going to conserve when forced to do so by high prices. With
prices between $2.75 and $3.00 the demand for crude has already
dropped. At $3.50 the refineries would no longer be operating at
capacity. We really need about 3 or 4 months of at least $3.00 gas.
Then it'll get cheap and the refineries will be operating no where
near capacity so the need to build more will be gone. I'm not
thrilled about paying high prices as I'm retired, on a pension, and
social security, but it's about the only thing that will make people
conserve.

Another unfortunate conclusion is it's going to take fuel prices in
that range to make alternative energy sources widely competitive.

If the drivers conserved to the point of forcing gas prices down
there'd be plenty of capacity for avgas. Unfortunately, some where in
the future I think the higher compression engines (like mine) are
going to require specialty fuels, or additives. Once the higher
powered diesels become widely available 100LL, its equivalent, or
additives for something to get that high are going to make today's
prices look mighty good. The only gas burners left will be the low
compression ones that can burn autogas. Except of course here in
Michigan where they no longer list on the pump whether the gas
contains alcohol or not.

That means there will be a lot of planes in the $60,000 to $120,000
range requiring $50,000 to $60,000 conversions to keep flying. How
many do you think will do that to a plane that is worth about the cost
of the conversion?
snip

You want the truth about oil and gas prices? 5 weeks ago when the oil
prices his $70 or so a barrel, the gas prices popped up over $3 a gallon

Some where along the line some one had to pay for that crude. It's
called speculation.

within days. The OIL that was that expensive was still to be in the boat
being shipped over from Saudi and Venezuela for days to weeks longer. We
paid a premium on refined product that was already in the inventory.
Legalized price gouging, anyone?

It doesn't work that way. You have to pay what it is going to take to
replace what is in the inventory. Then you base future charges on
what you think you are going to have to pay to fill the tanks next
time.

If you want to complain, wait until you see what LP gas does this
winter. As for natural gas, they sold most of ours in Michigan to
California two years ago when California screwed up. We had a nice
reserve until then. There currently is a limited supply that can be
used/accessed so it's going to get down right expensive this winter
and at the mid 30s right now I already have the heat on in both the
house and shop.


Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


You wanted OT.. you got it
Dave