"Matt Whiting" wrote in
Then you accept that you could make different choices that would raise
your chance of survival. Bikes are more dangerous than cars. Just like
flying in an airliner is safer than flying yourself.

Well, my accident record is much better than yours, so I think I'll stick
with the choices I'm making vs. yours. :-)

Comment:

Well, that illustrates my point pretty succinctly. I know you're not
entirely serious. But, your argument could hold for people who smoke, or
climb mountains, or base jump, or a number of other risky activities, who
don't die. Yet. Or maybe ever (due to their chosen risky activity). But
you were speaking in general terms and didn't acknowledge that the unwashed
masses do not, as proved by statistics, share your skill or luck. We don't
know why you have better than average stats and, I suspect, neither do you.
But you're not lucky beyond belief. And, if you think that the activity and
equipment choices you've made, which have been proved to relate a higher
incidence of injury or death, are less risky for you than the choices shown
to be less risky for everyone else, then you are narcissistic by nature.
Because, though you may be right, you can't really make a sensible
(testable) argument for it. Your predictive powers are unlikely to trump
empirical reality but you refuse to acknowledge it in a meaningful way.

It reminds me of Las Vegas. I've been a few times. I stay up late anyway
so a trek through the casinos in the wee hours is obligatory. The first few
times I was there I was fascinated, not by the old people pulling slots at 3
AM, but by the people betting on Roulette. There are displays that show the
previous numbers chanced by the ball. People, determinedly writing the
previous numbers on paper (I guess now punching them into their PDAs),
"predict" the next numbers and place their bets. The Gambler's Fallacy is
logic 101. And I don't doubt that the many of the people engaging it are at
least as bright as me. But they're chasing a chimera. Because of their
failure to grasp a simple part of reality, somebody took their money and
built this shining jewel in the middle of the desert. A shrine to human
irrationality that takes up space where Mormons would be raising sheep or
something like that. Do they think that the laws of chance are suspended
for a moment just for them? Some do; like kids in love. But most think
they're playing poker. And so do you.

moo