"Gary Drescher" wrote:

Having a Y/E aboard is one of the safest ways to fly.

Cool. But could you elaborate please? How did you calculate the
number of hours flown? What do you mean by nonserious
incidents? And how do you know how many such incidents (and
how many serious incidents) there have been, if there's no
comprehensive reporting system in place for them?


If 500,000 flights, call it 200,000 hours for the flights. Much of
this occurs at a planned Y/E event, so it can be presumed NTSB will
note that relevant fact. A word search through the reports on
keywords should turn them up.

The rate is so low

What is the rate?


I again queried up the accidents to date. It appears now a total
of 10 Y/E accidents (but 2 reports involve planes colliding on a
taxiway, for duplicate reports). However, there was one "possible
Y/E" fatal in 1998 in Colorado, and one serious injury to one
occupant -- hard landing. All others were no injury to occupants,
as common on landing/T-O accidents, which are the remaining cases.

The overall accident rate is in this period is then 10/100K hours,
at 5/100K for Y/E, it's twice as safe using the raw data,
fender-benders included.

that it isn't necessary to adjust for the fact that most
accidents occur within a few miles of an airport,

That's a fact? What's its source?

Just "read that" somewhere, but looks true. Flip through any
sample month of NTSB reports and count 'em up. If 60%, then we're
up to about 2.5 times as safe.

Stats can't account for pilots flying also homebuilts and
antique/classic taildraggers, statistically not as good (on
taildraggers I'm guessing). Can't account for these events
typically on Sat-Sun, sharing a busy pattern with others, and a
fatigue factor if a busy event. So the actual rate for this
activity is likely better yet.

Fred F.