wrote:

I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot.

CRQ to SBP

I'm flying a C172RG

The weather forecast:

Cloud bases vary from 1500 to 6000 ft over the route.

Rain reported all over the region.,.

Freezing level (From winds aloft) between 6000 and 9000

No icing airmets or sigmets for the route.

No Pireps availible.

MEA 6000 ft with one 16mile segment of 6400 ft.

I don't like the smell of that forecast. Sounds like at the MEA you've
got a very good chance of being in clouds in freezing temperatures.
Beats me why there's no airmet for icing.

This was a very close decision for me, and I opted for the No-Go.
I also releaized that I don't feel I know enoguh about making this
decision.

One of the factors that goes into a go/no-go decision is where are your
outs if the real weather is worse than the forecast.

What's the MIA (Minimum IFR Altitude)? If the MOCA is significantly
below the MEA, and you're going to be in radar coverage (local knowledge
helps here), you can reasonably expect that you might get assigned an
altitude below the MEA based on the MVA. Unfortunately, to the best of
my knowledge, the MVA is not knowable by pilots ahead of time. If
you're out of radar coverage, the MEA is as low as you'll get.

Do you know what the tops are? Maybe it's just a thin layer and you'll
be on top before you climb into freezing temperatures? You didn't give
enough information to tell.

Also, what kind of clouds are we talking about? Broken CU, or a thick
stratus overcast layer that stretches for 100's of miles. Based on the
reports of widespread rain, I'm guessing the latter.

I'm thinking of "worst case" scenarios. Based on the information you
gave, that sounds like the freezing level being a little lower than
forecast and the MEA being the MIA. So, imagine yourself at 7000
(lowest westbound altitude above the MEA), unable to get lower due to
terrain. OAT is 30 degrees, and you're in freezing rain. Sounds pretty
bad to me.

I don't understand why there's no icing airmet.