I'm not sure the odds are identical for a second hit after the first
one. The fact that it got hit may mean it's under a changed approach or
departure path, and so becomes more likely to suffer repeated impacts.

I note that you were careful to say

"Once that happens, it's just as likely for that house to be hit twice
as it is for a comparable unmolested house to be
hit once"

which takes that factor into account, but a fast reader may miss that
subtlety.