I take strong exception to this reasoning, which is not supported by real
world experience or data. All of us are imperfect, and all of us walk,
drive and fly imperfectly, all the time. The same mistake, made by a
thousand people, will bring a thousand results, by no means equal.

Tragic accidents have been caused by great pilots - great by any measure
we can concieve (and pilots' performance is measured on a continual
basis). If we could conceive an infallible test, which would determine
which of us is immune to imperfections, we would all lose our
certificates, and no more planes would fly.

You argument betrays a lack of experience, or humility, or both. I am not
a religious person, but I would recommend to you the book of
Ecclesiastes:

I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor
the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches
to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and
chance happeneth to them all.

GF





In article . com,
says...


There are accidents - a crank breaks on an otherwise perfectly
functioning engine - a microburst downdraft on short final in otherwise
clear air - a bird impact that blinds the pilot - icing encounters that
were not forecast - the vacuum pump goes bad - and so on... However,
the vast majority of "accidents" - 98% -are not accidental, they are
caused... There is a chain of events that leads up to the crash that
would have been prevented, could have been prevented, and should have
been prevented, had the pilot done his job before leaving the ground...
Examples:
Other than a fuel line breaking in flight there is no excuse for
running out of fuel - none - zero - nada... A pilot who runs out of
fuel should lose his certificate imediately and permanently.. He is not
fit to pilot an aircraft...
CFIT no exuse - none - zero - nada....
Busting a TFR - ADIZ, no excuse - none - zero - nada (there is also no
excuse for the TFR's, but that is another rant) They are published...
They don't move, they don't hide behind a cloud... You are required by
regulatory law to review restricted and prohibited airspace along your
route of flight before leaving the ground... There is no excuse...

Now, how about other stuff... Such as running off the runway in a
cross wind... An accident? Nope... Pilot error, pure and simple... If
the pilot did his job he would know what the maximum crosswind the
airplane can handle is, and he would have set a maximum crosswind that
HE is prepared to handle... Should be right on his check list - e.g. 8
KT crosswind limit... Check the AWOS or ATIS and if it exceeds the
limit, use another runway or another airport...
Landing downwind and running off the end... doh!!!! Need we say
more...
Hitting the ground on an instrument approach (recent)... Pure pilot
error... Either set the altimeter wrong, or went below minimums...
Snuff one pilot...
VFR into IMC (well, let's just go awhile and take a look, it should
get better) uhuh, sure it will with an area forecast for lowering
ceilings!
Giving ATC your position from the airport 180 degrees wrong and
altitude off by 2000 feet... (KJAX last year - hysterical, you should
have heard it)... Finally admitted he had a new GPS and wasn't sure how
to read it... (You should have heard the disgust in the controllers
voice after he had to issue warnings to all aircraft in the area
because this bozo did not know where he was (only off by 20 miles and
2000 feet)...
Going to a dawn patrol last year, the V tail Bonanza last year that
passed over top of me on downwind at least 2000 feet higher and
announced he was on downwind... Then proceeded to angle left about 30
degrees unannounced (not a base turn), then make a hard 150 degree
turn and announce he was short final (I was on base by then, and I had
announced) while he was 3 miles out and still high... At this point I
began to believe that this dip wad would run into me from behind if
given the chance so I elected to make a right turn and continue
downwind a bit, announcing to the heavy inbound traffic my intentions
and position every ten seconds... I let him pass me close on the left
and then completed my pattern, with a conga line of planes following
me... On the ground one of the guys came over to me and said he was
the plane behind me during landing and had just heard this bozo in the
food line ranting about the 'idiot' that cut him off, and did I want to
do anything about it as he would back up my story... I declined to make
an issue of it and went on my way...

All of us want to believe the best of our fellow pilots... But you only
have to talk to your FSDO inspector for a bit to see how tired he is of
hearing endless excuses for what was the pilot's responsibility to
prevent in the first place...

denny