Clustering can reduce the rate for one year and elevate it for another
year. However, the report shows that accident rates have been declining
for the past 10 years, which is a significant point.


Jose wrote:
I read on AvWeb today the '05 Nall Report is out, and apparently 2004
was a historic low for aviation accidents. This led me to question what
next year's report will look like after considering the spate of GA
accidents that we've all read about in the last year or so. Maybe it's
just a question of perception? Or, are pilots just getting too
complacent when they strap into their aircraft?

Or maybe it's just a statistical artifact. Shift a few accidents from
December to January, and shift a few others from next January to this
December, and you have a banner year for airplane crashes caused simply
by the artificial boundaries of the sample set.

Sometimes random events cluster for no reason. In fact, it is highly
unlikely that they would =not= cluster.

Jose
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