"Jose" wrote in message
...
Of the total fatalities (130), there are probably less than 40 that apply
to the sort of flying that you claim to do. So you should be able to
multiply the safety probability by more than 4 (or reduce your risk by a
factor of more than 4.... maybe something closer to 300,000 to 1).

False.

You can't just change the numerator, you must also look at the
denominator -


C'mon... I'm trying to give the guy something to hang on to :-)!! Nobody
said this was a scientific study! :-)

Nevertheless, it may be "false", but not completely so.

Although I don't have the numbers..... it is a good bet that for many of
those "outside the envelope" categories ( IFR in IMC, helicopter, night
flights, aerobatics, hand-propping, etc.) the denominator is, in fact,
proportionately small relative to the total numbers "inside" the "basic"
Jay-type operations envelope.