If panel-mounted, IFR-certified GPS/NAV/COM units were bought in the volumes
that personal computers are, the GNS-430 would probably cost a few hundred
dollars. They would be manufactured in China, and there would be a dozen
companies competing for the business.

But, if personal computers we
* highly regulated by governments;
* had the requirement to only be touched by certified technicians (who
took years to get their ticket);
* had the insurance albatross around their necks;
* had all the other "drag" associated with aviation;
I'll bet their price would be nowhere near the couple of hundred bucks
they are now.

Even at higher volumes than aviation, medical equipment has
astronomically high prices because of the liability and government
tinkering.

So, I believe there are 2 components necessary for prices to fall out of
the stratosphere, volume and truly "free" trade. The rules for light
airplanes need to be significantly changed or removed. This includes the
legal lottery mentality of the public.

Once done, MAYBE prices would fall enough to encourage more folks to buy
in, thereby driving volume a bit (thus lowering prices and so on).
Garmin is only going to sell a very limited number of $10,000
(installed) IFR cert. GPS units to the potential aviation community. If
the installed price were $3000 (more volume, less government, less legal
drag), I'll bet they would sell quite a bit more. Maybe enough to make
the number more attractive to them as a manufacturer (I'm not an
economist, and I don't play one on Usenet).

Yes, even if everyone with a plane bought one, the volume would not be
impressive. But, I would bet their current sales amounts to only a
single digit percentage of the airplane community eligible, maybe only a
fraction of 1%. Who the hell can afford these things in a $30k airplane?

It might be interesting to run some scenarios to see where the break
even and profit points would shift if the rules and volumes were changed.

Mike