(Michael) wrote in message . com...

(C Kingsbury) wrote
Needle position and movement trend will indicate what you're dealing
with. At best I will grant you there is a theoretical reduction of
precision of measuring the x-wind component, but I suspect in most
cases the difference in the two approaches will be nugatory.

In most cases, you can just fly IMC without talking to anyone and it's
fine.

Well, not around Boston you can't. But that's neither here nor there,
and my point remains. If you were to draw a bounding rectangle of the
airspace used by the two different procedure turn flightpaths, they
may not be identical, but I find it difficult to imagine a case where
the differences are actually significant from a perspective of utility
or safety. And again, it is clear beyond any argument that the full
procedure increases the pilot's workload, which in my view is among
the surest ways to reduce real safety.

At best, the full procedure might provide navigational precision of
5-10% on the inbound leg to the FAF, though I suspect this advnatage
washes out during the final approach segment, unless it is very short,
or nonexistent, as with a beacon on the field, in which case the
minimums are so high it makes little difference anyway.

My unqualified suspicion is that a lot more pilots, especially
lightplane single-pilot IFR ones, get into trouble with basic spatial
disorientation, than with modest navigational errors. Truly systematic
risk management looks at the effects each optimization has not just on
a particular variable, but on all variables.

Yes, and we allow people to drive 55MPH, despite the fact that some
people get killed doing just that.

Which means that sometimes it's NOT safe to drive 55, even when that's
the speed limit.

Yes, and it doesn't mean that we ought to lower it to 45 everywhere,
either. Your point that "I need to get into my head" that just because
the rules allow X doesn't mean X is safe smelled more than a bit
hyperbolic in this regard. To dismiss the rules completely because
there are one or two exceptions is no more intelligent than applying
them thoughtlessly in place of common sense.

Best,
-cwk.