On 7/2/06 5:53 PM, in article
,
" wrote:


This is a fundamental problem with the killing zone analysis. There is
another problem -- no adjustment for the exogeneity of innate ability
or cautiousness. That is, there's really no way to know if the pilots
who offed themselves in a few hundred hours would go on to fly for
thousands more hours if they were somehow magically revived, or if they
would have only gone and offed themselves a few hours later.

Put another way, there's no easy way to know if you, as a 300+ hour
pilot not only need not worry, but never needed to worry because you're
an innately better/smarter pilot than those other dead guys. (I'm being
facetious; of course you should worry. A pilot must constantly work to
maintain the safety of a flight.)

But statistically, this is a valid question. Are those pilot's who die
in 300 hours different in any other way other than being 300.
Because the of the partly self-selecting nature of making it to 300,
1000, 10000, or whatever, this is a real question. There are
statistical techniques for correcting this. Don't know if "killing
zone" does this.

-- dave, a still-worried instrument rated pilot 350 hours and a few too
many econometrics classes

-- jacobowitz73 --at-- yahoo --dot-- com


I realize that I still have to worry simply because, like on a motorcycle,
I'm at the mercy of my own skill AND the skill of the other guy out there.

I feel I'm a better pilot now than I ever have been, especially since I have
my IFR ticket, and I almost always learn something every time I fly, but
that in itself is an indication to me that something can go wrong that I
haven't foreseen or come across yet. So I worry.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

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