Brooks Hagenow writes:

Christopher Brian Colohan wrote:
Matt Whiting writes:
Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day?

One use of exit polls is to check the accuracy of the election.
As a pilot, you probably appreciate the value of redundant
systems. The exit poll data can give you an indication of a
problem in the electoral polling process.

If the election result and the polling data radically disagree, it
is probably worthwhile to look closely at both the election and
the exit poll to figure out the source of error...

I disagree with this. Exit polls are not taken by every person that
votes. I don't participate in them for instance.

I'm confused -- what are you disagreeing with? Are you arguing that
any source of inaccuracy (no matter how small) in the polls
invalidates their usefulness as an indicator? Why?

If you can estimate or measure the potential error from people
refusing to participate then you can adjust your error bounds on the
polling data.

For example, lets say that the exit polls at my local firehouse showed
that 90% of folks voted for Joe the garbageman, and only 10% voted for
Bob the fireman for our new position of block captain. If the
election results showed that Bob the fireman won by a landslide, I
would want to know why! It may be a problem in the polls, but perhaps
something fishy was going on at the firehouse... Are you arguing that
when it looks like there may be a problem it is better to look the
other way?

They only exist so that the media has something to report throughout
the day instead of just reminding everyone when the polls close and
watching the clock in anticipation. I for one believe the media
should keeps its mouth shut and not even talk about the election
other than reminding everyone it is election day until states are
finalized.

I strongly agree that the media should not report any election results
(from polls or otherwise) until the election is complete. It is not
fair to the candidates if their reporting influences people's voting
decision.

Chris
--
Chris Colohan Email: PGP: finger
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