"alank" wrote in news:IWzHg.4185$_q4.3573@dukeread09:

On page 12 of 72 of the below listed Recent Trends in Fatal Motorcycle
Crashes -

"In 2004, motorcycles made up nearly 2.4 percent of all registered
vehicles in the United States and accounted for only 0.3 percent of all
vehicle miles traveled. In comparison, motorcycle riders accounted for
5.3 percent of total traffic fatalities in 1995 and have increased to
9.4 percent of the total traffic fatalities in 2004. Per 100,000
registered vehicles, the fatality rate for motorcycle riders (69.33) in
2004 was 4.6 times the fatality rate for passenger car occupants
(15.05). Per vehicle mile traveled in 2004, motorcycle riders (39.89)
were about 34 times more likely than passenger car occupants (1.18) to
die in a motor vehicle traffic crash."

So, motorcycle riders are 34 times more likely to die per mile then in a
car. I believe the analysis on GA to cars is about 6 to 8 times more
likely. Looks like there is your answer.

There is a major flaw in this comparison of past and current
fatality rates.

First of all, car design has changed dramatically over the years
to increase occupant survivability rates. Little to nothing has
changed for motorcyclists.

The problem is that it only APPEARS that motorcycle fatalities
have increased in proportion to car fatalities. The reality is
that car fatalities have decreased whereas motorcycle fatalities
may have stayed the same, or even dropped, but not as dramatically.
This must be taken form teh perspective of a fixed number of
persons.

Just to make up some numbers....

10,000 cars and 100 bikes.

In 1950, 500 car drivers and 10 bikers die. That makes bikers
2% of the fatalities.

Then technology steps in and invents air bags, crumple zones,
uni-body construction, etc...but little is done for bikes,
except mandatory helmet laws.

50 years later, for the same group of 10,000 cars and 100 bikes,
there's only 100 car fatalities and 5 biker deaths. Now the
proportion says that bikers make up 5% of road fatalites, 2.5
times more than 50 years before.

See the problem?

Brian
--
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