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Old September 13th 06, 05:52 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting,rec.aviation.owning
M[_1_]
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Posts: 207
Default Price gap between 100LL and autogas

Here're some interesting data of total 100LL production and import
(very close to total 100LL consumption because the inventory stock
should be relatively stable) from year 1999 to year 2004:

Year Avgas (thousand barrels)
1999 7485
2000 6648
2001 7121
2002 6584
2003 6255
2004 6295

source:
http://www.indexmundi.com/en/commodi...ly_monthly.htm

The data in 2005 isn't available, but it'll most likely be below 2004
because that's when the gas price really started to go up. I won't be
surprised to see 2005 total avgas consumption dip below 6M barrels.

And that's all in face of ever increasing (auto) gasoline production
and consumption in U.S.

The price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded is going to go up a lot
more when Avgas becomes an increasingly exotic fuel.

M wrote:
Currently the price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded, on a national
average basis, is approximately $1.50, give and take. That's quite a
bit higher than say 1997, I remember the gap was definitely below $1.

The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices. Logic
says that the price gap of 100LL and 87 unleaded will increase further,
because the special handling and transportation cost of 100LL fuel will
have to be amortized over a smaller amount of total 100LL sale.

I guess all the low compression engine flyers better get their autogas
STC and start lobbying their legislators for a stable supply of ethanol
free autofuel now.

Interesting sources:
http://www.airnav.com/fuel/report.html
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/