Gary Drescher wrote:

I don't understand your scenario. They'd have been flying north along the
east shore of the narrow river, then making a U-turn to fly south along the
west shore. Aside from the river itself, plausible nearby landing sites are
along the east shore and on the island in the middle of the river; I don't
see how heading for those sites would have led them to crash on the west
side of the river. (Plus, there was no distress call or other indication of
engine problems.)

If they flew too fast, making the turn too wide (which is my guess), they'd
have hit the north side of a building on the west shore--which they did.

--Gary

Also, the winds were coming from ENE gusting to 22. Going northbound on
the west fork of the East River and making a lefthand turn, the turning
radius would be significantly wider. This would have contributed to the
"surprise" factor as well (not unlike the typical overshooting the
final in a crosswind situation).

Marco