On Sat, 6 Jan 2007 09:36:45 -0500, "Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe" The Sea
Hawk at wow way d0t com wrote:

"Roger" wrote in message
.. .

...
So then, why is everyone trying to get on this guy's case. Because his
luck
ran out?

I'd guess because he apparently descended through the clag with out a
rating instead of proceeding on to where he could let down VFR.
Although the one area reported 1000 foot ceilings it appears others
were reporting much less and some cases of fog.

So, apparently, he had enough fuel to go on however far it was to get to
VMC?

To be legal he should have and he must have been legal. Not that I'd
take any bets though.


VFR over the TOP is taking a calculated risk and should be done with
"known" good VFR below the ceiling.(at least 1500 and 5) You also need
to know what is below just in case the engine quits or you smell
something burning. Plus you need good VFR within reach plus some
reserve.


And, at the time he started over the top, he didn't have good forcasts up
ahead?

"I think" they said morning fog that was "expected" to clear. Not
something I'd even depend on for IFR without reserves to get me to
VMC.

And, if you have good VMC underneath, why in the world would one want to
take the chance on going over?

Turbulence below when it's *usually* smooth above layers, unfavorable
winds below, favorable winds on top, I flew from NC Tennessee to
central Michigan on top and never saw the ground from about Kentucky
to a bit north of the Michigan/Ohio border. It was absolutely clear up
here. We left Gainesville GA in good weather. We cut over to the
West about as far as Chattanooga to miss some stuff in the Knoxville
area.

After crossing the mountains it started to get pretty rough. We tried
descending and it got worse. So, we climbed up to put us over the
cloud layer to the north. It was silk smooth from there home.

VMC underneath is nice to know about, but if you don't have the IMC skills
to get there, it ain't gonna do you no good.

Agreed
Long before I had the rating I had the skills to let down, or even fly
in the stuff IF an emergency happened and I flew a fair amount under
the hood and in actual with an instructor. I had more time in actual
and doing approaches to minimums as an instrument student than I have
accumulated since. Which means I was a lot more proficient then than I
am now. At present I need to take an IPC before going back in the
clouds and I'd not go over the top unless it were a short trip with
good VMC on the other side.


The problem as I see it (with what information I have), is not that
his luck ran out, but with lack of planning, he made some poor
decisions resulting in a dangerous situation where he needed that
luck..

I would say proceding over the top was poor decision #1 - Betting on a
forcast being right, nothing going wrong with the airplane, and no other
options (e.g. IFR)

Pretty much sums it up. However I believe the forecasts were not good
enough to even qualify those areas as alternates for an IFR flight.
Remember the 1, 2, and 3 where 1 is one hour before to one hour after
the scheduled arrival time with a ceiling of 2000 AGL and 3 miles
visibility. So he should have been expecting marginal conditions or
divine intervention.
Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com