On Thu, 07 Aug 2003 18:19:59 +0800, Paul Saccani wrote:
On Thu, 07 Aug 2003 05:15:15 +0100, Pooh Bear
wrote:

Ships and various targets belonging to "the enemy". I would have thought
that was self-evident.

And just who might "the enemy" be ?

It would not be diplomatic to say who the enemy *might* be.

I'm not a diplomat: Indonesia.

Possible other threats might include China, Japan (unlikely givenm
its current unwarlike nature), and the other countries of South-East
Asia.

Given the long lead time in such programs, you need 100% certainty
that there will be no significant changes in our geo-political
circumstances for at least ten years. That is a big ask.

One needs to look at the capability that will exist nearby over the
next ten years at least, then factor for the low, but non-zero chance
of a radical change in circumstances.

A worst-case scenario might be China allied with Indonesia, and
Australia doesn't have any allies, sometime between 2010-2020. I'd
imagine by that time China would have enough advanced aircraft to
win air superiority, in which case Australia's best hope to stop an
invasion would probably be submarines (firing high-speed
cavitating torpedoes) and anti-ship missiles.



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