"Keith Willshaw" wrote in message ...

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/natstats/stat.../pdf/chap4.pdf

One of the problems is that a single collision can skew the figures
badly given the small numbers of the Harrier fleet

Indeed. The damage/10,000 hours operation is a useful stat, though,
which should be fairly accurate over the life of a long lived
airplane.

RAF Damage Rate/10,000 hours operation (over lifetime), sorted
descending order
Harrier: 1.19
Jaguar: 1.10
Tornado GR: 0.65
Hawk: 0.46
Chinook: 0.44
Puma: 0.37
Gazelle: 0.31
Tornado F: 0.29
Bulldog: 0.20
Wessex: 0.18
Sea King: 0.14
Jetstream: 0.09
Tucano: 0.08
Hercules: 0.04
Chipmunk: 0.04

RN FAA Damage Rate/10,000 hours operation

Sea Harrier 2.21
Merlin: 1.79
Sea King: 0.51
Lynx: 0.43
Jetstream: 0.08

The Army helo's are between .3 and .45

Note that while for most aircraft this is the average over the entire
history of the type, there are a few exceptions. The Harrier numbers
count trainers but, in the RAF case, not editions before the GR.7. The
Tornado numbers are also specific, the GR.1 and the GR.4, and the F2 &
F3 are split up.

Note two things: A) the Harrier is the most dangerous aircraft that
the British military operates, in terms of damage/hour operation,
exceeding all helocopters as well. B) RAF GR.7 & T.10 damage rates are
almost exactly those of the USMC in terms of damage/hour operation.

For all but the newest airplanes I think these numbers are fairly
accurate representation of damage rates. (e.g. the Merlin numbers
might be a bit high because it is so new, but as for the rest...)

Also, people who go low do worse then people who go high (compare
Tornado F versus Tornado GR).

That single loss translates into a loss per 10,000 hour rate
of 1.83. In that year there were no losses for Sea Kings so they
appear very safe.

So you have hours of operation numbers per year? Where? I don't see
them in this document.

I'll lay odds that after this years fatal mid air over the Gulf the
Sea King figures will look awful.

Yes, but I would think that the damage/10,000 hours over the entire
lifespan would take a hit, but not a serious one.

Chris Manteuffel