writes:

Thing is, the proposal is that the average temperature
is increasing.

That's not a proposal, it's an observation, and well established.

The only questions are the long-term changes that may occur as a result of
increased temperatures, and the causes of the increased temperatures. Nobody
has any idea of what the answers to either of these questions might be,
despite media claims to the contrary.

One outcome (and this is a big stretch I think) is
that the Gulf Stream could switch off in which case
the weather in the UK could become similar to the
present weather in Labrador.
If that turns out to be correct then global warming will
have caused a reduction in the winter temperature
in North Western Europe.

But that is complete speculation. Nobody really knows.

These predictions are coming from the application
of the same tools and techniques that have made
reliable weather forecasts an everyday proposition.

Since we do not have reliable weather forecasts, that gives you some idea of
how clueless we are with respect to long-term weather changes. It is not
currently possible to predict even so much as a thunderstorm with any
accuracy, up until a few minutes before it begins. We cannot predict the
development or path of tornadoes, even in the seconds before they appear. We
cannot predict the development of hurricanes or their path. We don't know
exactly when it will snow or rain. We cannot predict wind directions.

Furthermore, weather is chaotic, which means that a very small change in
initial conditions will produce huge swings in the weather later on. A
consequence of this is that the only way to accurately predict the weather
over the long term is to have 100% accurate data, and lots of it. This means,
for example, that we need temperature, pressure, and humidity data for every
cubic metre of the Earth's atmosphere at any given instant, and it must all be
perfectly accurate, otherwise we can never accurately predict the weather for
tomorrow or the day after ... much less for 100 years from now. We will never
have data this accurate, and so we will never be able to predict weather with
that degree of accuracy.

We actually have a better change of finding ways to alter than the weather
than of finding ways to predict it with accuracy. And that's saying a lot,
given that we have no real hope at this time of altering the weather.

Ignoring the atmospheric changes that the burning
of fossil fuels has caused (and this appears to me
to be indisputable - carbon was in ground, is now in
atmosphere) and assuming that it will not adversely
affect the climate is only an option for those that have
no interest in the continuation of the human civilisation.

This is a vast exaggeration. We really have no idea what the burning of
fossil fuels will do to the weather, if anything. We have no accurate models
for prediction of future weather, and we don't have the computing power to use
such models even if they existed. Additionally, for both short-term and
long-term weather predictions, we don't have all the data we need, and we
never will--not only because our means of gathering data are limited, but also
because some of the variables, such as solar output, cannot be known in
advance.

Many people _assume_ that the burning of fossil fuels is connected to global
warming, for various reasons that often have nothing to do with science. But
we really don't know. We only know that the temperature has increased
recently.

If I was an active private (or other) pilot I would be
concerned that my costs were going to rise
due to legislative and market changes triggered
by concern about global warming and of
course any 'leisure' activity involving the
use of fossil fuels is likely to be the subject of
unwelcome attention. However, there is a LONG
way to go in the improvement of the performance
of gerneral aviation engines and this is likely
to keep the baying mob happy for some
time.

General aviation makes absolutely no dent in the accumulation of greenhouse
gases, and therefore cannot possibly be making a dent in the weather. Anyone
complaining about GA is barking up the wrong tree. Of course, that won't stop
people from barking. Even commercial aviation really doesn't make any dent.

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.