kirjutas:
On Mar 31, 7:04 am, Mxsmanic wrote:

The specter of full automation replacing pilots entirely continues to loom
ever larger in commercial and military aviation. The old arguments against it
are beginning to ring quite hollow.
...
However, I
also think that, given the proven versatility of human beings when it comes to
handling the unexpected and unanticipated, versus the catastrophic failure
modes of digital systems when they encounter the same, there will be pilots in
the cockpit until long after flights are fully automated, just to be on the
safe side.

What are the old arguments?

For ROUTINE flight, I'd say we're nearly there, technically. Given a
few more years to wring the bugs out of the software and spread some
more of the proper equipment around, it could probably be quite
reliable.

The larger problem, as you've mentioned, is what happens when
something goes wrong. First the FAA has to be convinced that the
systems can handle all the unforseen problems that humans could
handle. Then, a much bigger job, the public has to be convinced to
get on a plane run by a computer with no human pilots on board
(YIKES!! SCARY!!). I don't think that will be an easy sell.

The second is obviously easier than the first - at least sometimes.

Do you think it is safe to fly a plane where the copilot is alone in
the cockpit while the captain takes a toilet break?

FAA thinks it is. Passengers generally accept it, and do not insist on
third relief pilot when FAA does not require this.

Sometimes they are wrong. See Carole Lombard.

I think the story is that the captain left a DC-3 cockpit - allowed
and supposed to be perfectly safe - and stayed in cabin chatting with
passengers for some time.

The copilot, flying the plane alone for a long time, in poor weather
and mountainous countryside, got lost. And flew into a mountain.

Carole did not tell the captain to go back and mind where they were
flying.

There are plenty of incidents caused by cockpits not being sterile,
and pilot distraction. And there are plenty of pilots who flew in
nonsterile cockpits and got clean away with it, or who were caught and
punished without accident.

Now look at what happens when there are no pilots functioning at all.

Payne Stewart Learjet had double pilot incapacitation from hypoxia.
The plane did not promptly roll into a spiral dive when the pilots
stopped attending to controls - it kept flying till the fuel ran out.
Helios B737 also had double pilot incapacitation due to hypoxia. Again
no prompt spiral dive - the plane actually entered a circling holding
pattern when no one took controls in destination, and also dealt with
one engine failure.

There are also notorious cases of manned planes crashing because
deliberately left unpiloted. A certain American aviation pioneer,
around 1916, invented an autopilot. He also gave flying lessons - a
student of his was a lady (married to another man). Anyway, he had
enough trust in his autopilot - and she shared his trust - so that
they undressed and had sex. Unfortunately, they accidentally switched
off the autopilot - and crashed. Both survived (but did not have time
to get dressed again). Another couple, in 1970-s or so, were not so
lucky - both died.

How many people have either landed without incident and been snitched
on by witnesses, or got clean away with deliberately unpiloted planes?

I assume the airlines might like this because it eliminates their need
for expensive pilots, however if pilots (or pilot) are still needed
onboard to back up the equipment, then the cost savings, and therefore
the motivation, might disappear.

Now, on the other hand, there is absolutely no way a computer could
fly my Cherokee as well as I do; I refuse to believe it.

Is there any way a copilot could fly your plane as well as you do?

When could you trust your autopilot as much as to leave the cockpit
unattended for a toilet break while all alone aboard the plane? What
about, carrying passengers and leaving cockpit empty for a toilet
break, or for a Mile High Club break?