Jay Honeck wrote:
So why the gloom?

Like most people, I think this has been in the works a long time.
Aviation has traditionally been the province of the wealthy. We're just
seeing the owner population decline more rapidly due primarily to the
doubling of gas prices and maintenance costs over the past 5 years. The
FUD regarding user-fees hasn't helped either.

As far as the LSAs go, they may be the future for the $100-hamburger
guys, but for anyone that really wants to get anywhere and carry
anything, they are by design woefully inadequate. If they keep the
"average guy" (defined apparently by someone who has the means and
desire to spend $85K+ on a flying grocery cart) at the airport, then
great -- I welcome them. At the current prices, however, LSAs only
delay the inevitable for the same reason that traditionally-certified GA
aircraft are no longer an option for joe average -- price. LSAs would
be a good deal only if priced less than 50K, since then literally anyone
with a job other than cleaning toilets could afford them.

Regarding the Piper problem, this is clearly spoken by a CEO that has
been dealt a stacked deck and is trying to run the numbers on aviation
-- something we all know won't end well The problem with Piper is that
it lacks the financial clout to fight lawsuits because they failed to
diversify. Years ago they killed the Cheyenne line -- the very aircraft
that could have kept them awash in money and helped fund the development
of small jets. The Piper VLJ is a good idea for Piper's financial
future, but it's about 30 years too late to the party. Cessna is the
model here. Build piston aircraft more or less at a loss, but make it
up on the aircraft targeted at the commercial markets that can support
higher margins (i.e. turboprops & jets). Make no mistake...this is not
a failing of GA in particular but that of Piper's inept management over
the years.

In spite of GARA, liability is still the single biggest threat to the
success of GA. The only thing that will save aviation is further,
drastic Tort reform. We need to limit lawsuits of ANY kind in aviation
to 7 years, strictly limit who can sue (e.g. one plaintiff per action)
and limit the maximum award to something reasonable like $250K per
incident. Once the money supply dries up, so will the ambulance-chasing
attorneys. The ripple effect will ultimately reduce the cost of flying.

-Doug

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Doug Vetter, ATP/CFI

http://www.dvatp.com
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