On Wed, 27 Jun 2007 16:22:58 GMT, cavelamb himself
wrote:

william wrote:
snip
I'm afraid food prices are just starting to go up and
will continue so.


That really is the point I was reaching for.
Not just complaining about corn.

And as oil prices continue to rise we are going to be faced with some
difficult times and hard choices (like DRIVING to Osh?).

I mean, it's not just gasoline that is increasing, but everything that
is made from it, made with it, or transported.

And THAT includes just about everything.

So I'm really curious...
What comes next?

BUT as the use of alternative fuels becomes wide spread we will use
less crude and the price will go down. BUT if we are sustaining that
lower gas consumption then the refineries will not produce as much
which will force the price back up. Also as production drops below the
max output for a refinery the efficiency goes down making it more
expensive to produce a gallon of gas which forces the price up.

I would expect the production of gas to be reduced (supply and demand)
to the point where it keeps pace with the price of the fuels replacing
it. However this will force the price of crude down and I would expect
the price of crude to drop considerably which will make the oil
exporting states unhappy so they are likely to reduce production. BUT
although this could raise the price of crude they will be selling far
less of the stuff.

As an interesting side note, if you calculate how much crude is used
to produce fuel for cars and truck, see how much is imported, and then
look at increasing fuel efficiency in cars and trucks we only need to
raise the overall fleet MPG from the current 20.5 (roughly) to about
27 we would be saving more crude than we import. That is unlikely to
happen, but it's still an interesting figure.

In reality we'd still be importing a substantial amount of crude, but
we'd no longer be dependent on having to import it. That *should* mean
a lower price for crude that could be used for things other than gas
and that still takes a lot of crude.

So, it's not a given that everything would *have* to go up in price
but It doesn't mean it wouldn't

For one I would expect those production methods that are less
expensive and more profitable would probably *eventually* replace
the bulk of corn used in the production of ethanol which would result
in one whale of a political battle.

As I've mentioned before, using hemp we could produce more alcohol at
far less cost than using corn. It's also a much more robust crop, that
can grow under widely varying conditions unlike corn. it can also be
grown on land unsuitable for most other crops thus taking less land
out of the food production chain.

To the farmer soybeans, navy beans, wheat, and sugar beets are far
more profitable than raising corn. They are also no where near as hard
on the soil.OTOH navy beans and even beets are quite dependent on the
growing conditions. Of course I'd hate to be trying to raise much of
anything down in Georgia this year. Then there's Texas and the
surrounding states suffering from too much of a good thing but the
drought is certainly over...for the time being.



Richard

"cavelamb himself" wrote in message
k.net...

I am remimded of a quote that said, "when otherwise intelligent people
do stupid stuff, there is usually politics involved".

So not only do we pay more for less power in our auto fuel...


http://www.netscape.com/viewstory/20...nd-for-ethanol